\magnification=1200 \count0=0 \newcount\enf\enf=0 \newcount\test \newcount\fotnum\fotnum=0 \newcount\ftnm\ftnm=0 \def\en#1{\advance\fotnum by1{${}^{\number\fotnum}$}{#1}\par} \def\nt{\advance\ftnm by1${}^{\number\ftnm}$~} \def\pnt{\advance\ftnm by1${}^{\number\ftnm}$~~} \def\quote#1{{\par\vskip12pt\narrower\narrower\baselineskip=12pt \noindent#1\par}} \def\cb#1{\centerline{\bf#1}} \nopagenumbers \baselineskip=24pt \raggedbottom \headline{\test=\count0\advance\test by\enf \ifnum\test>1\rm Bowers, Christopher David\hfil Page \folio \else\hfil\fi} \footline{\ifnum\count0=1\hss\rm\folio\hss\fi} {\baselineskip=12pt \strut \vfill \cb{An Analysis of} \cb{Some Determinants of Voter Turnout} \vfill \cb{Prepared for} \cb{Dr. James L. Franke} \cb{Professor of Political Science} \cb{Texas A\&M University} \cb{College Station, Texas} \vfill \cb{Submitted by} \cb{Chris Bowers} \cb{Route 5~~Box 1338} \cb{College Station, Texas~~77840} \vfill \cb{March 5, 1984} \vfill\eject} \strut\vskip1.1truein During the past twenty years, one of the most important trends in American politics has been the reduction in the percentage of the electorate that votes.\pnt In view of this change, this paper will focus upon the modern determinants of turnout---in other words, the factors that influence whether or not citizens vote. Knowing what influences turnout is important to political scientists for several reasons. First, voter behavior is studied because voting communicates the people's desires to government.\pnt These desires, in turn, collectively decide the goals of society and thus reflect the priorities of the voters.\pnt Thus, many important decisions are made by citizens and politicians based on a prior vote. Second, voter participation is viewed as a barometer of the health of the American political system.\pnt Studying voting behavior enables political scientists to measure how much support the values and principles of American society are given.\pnt The determinants of voting behavior govern how many citizens go to the polls. For example, some political scientists believe that the more citizens participate in the decision-making process, the more democracy a nation has.\pnt When people vote, they feel more a part of society\nt and also show that they are satisfied with the government.\pnt On the other hand, if no one voted, then democracy would cease to exist in the United States.\pnt In other words, the sign of a healthy democracy is an active electorate. Third, studying the determinants of voting behavior enables political scientists to find out which groups of people have the most influence on the nation's policies.\pnt Since voting is an act of influence, it follows that the more people of a certain group vote, the better represented they will be.\pnt By studying voting behavior, political scientists can see who makes the decisions and for whom they are made. Fourth, the study of the participation of the electorate lets political scientists observe the process of how decisions are made.\pnt For most Americans, voting is the only way they participate in politics.\pnt Therefore, voting is the chief way by which the means are chosen to direct American policy-making. The last reason for studying voting behavior is that it reveals much about human sociology and psychology.\pnt Voting behavior has been examined for what it tells about the ``conditions of attitude change, the nature of group identifications, the role of personality characteristics, the effects of the mass communications media, and the ecological structures of our cities.''\pnt Because one of the main goals of the political scientist should be to generalize about the political behavior of people, elections are ideal laboratories because of the large amount of available, quantifiable, and readily accessible information. When the literature on the determinants of turnout is examined, it is surprising to note that over thirty different explanations of voter participation have been studied. The factors supposedly governing turnout can be split into several categories. The determinants of voter participation can be divided into the characteristics of the citizens themselves and the characteristics of the political system.\pnt Some of the characteristics of the political system influencing electoral activity, such as the candidates, campaign expenditures, and the issues, are known as the ``short-term forces''\pnt and will not be examined in this paper because they vary with each election. Most of the ``long-term forces'' affecting voter turnout, such as the legal barriers in some states preventing eligible citizens from voting and the lack of meaningful party competition in the states, have either been eliminated by federal law or are disappearing naturally.\pnt Therefore, they will not be examined either. The characteristics of individual citizens can be separated into two general groups: The demographic variables, which include socioeconomic status, age, sex, race, and location of permanent residence, and the attitudinal variables, such as feelings about government responsiveness, perceived closeness of the race, concern over election outcome, perceived personal effectiveness, and the intensity with which citizens identify themselves with a political party.\pnt With so many factors possibly influencing the turnout of Americans at the polls, it is likely that several factors will have some influence on the percentage of the electorate that vote. This paper will investigate several of the most prominent theories on voter turnout and will argue that socioeconomic status, the perception of external political efficacy (government responsiveness), the perception of internal political efficacy (personal effectiveness), and the intensity that citizens identify with a political party are factors which influence the dependent variable, voter turnout. The primary hypothesis to be examined is: \quote{Among U.S. citizens in 1980, those with a high socioeconomic status will tend to vote in that year's presidential election, while those with a low socioeconomic status will tend to not vote in that election.} \noindent Voter turnout is defined as the proportion of the U.S. voting population that cast ballots in an election.\pnt For the purposes of this discussion, the election to be studied will be the 1980 presidential election. The independent variable of the primary hypothesis is socioeconomic status, sometimes referred to as social status. Income, education, and occupation will be used as measures of socioeconomic status in this investigation, as they are in many other studies.\pnt The empirical evidence in support of this hypothesis is overwhelming. Both Zipp et al. and Cassel and Hill cite many studies that support the hypothesis, including studies done by Campbell et al. (1960) and Verba and Nie (1962).\pnt Zipp seems to indicate that the most comprehensive study which demonstrates the validity of this hypothesis was done by Milbrath and Goel (1977), but unfortunately the Texas A\&M library does not possess this work.\pnt Investigations done by Cassel and Hill (1981), Conway (1981), and Maddox (1979) also demonstrate socioeconomic status is a good predictor of voter turnout, although at least Conway and Cassel and Hill appeared to have used income, education, and age to define socioeconomic status.\pnt Additional support in a limited manner comes from Reiter (1979), Cavanagh (1981) and Brody (1978). These three all agree that income and education are good measures of whether a person will vote.\pnt Just as there are many supporters of the primary hypothesis, there are also many theoretical reasons why socioeconomic status is an important factor. The earliest source found was Lane (1959), who argued that the social norms and roles of citizens with a low socioeconomic status tend to encourage less active political behavior in contrast to the norms and roles of those with a high social status.\pnt Lane also points out that lower status citizens do not have as many resources, such as time and money, which are conducive to participation.\pnt This last argument is consistent with the theory first articulated by Anthony Downs. Downs analyzed voting from a rational decision-making perspective (similar to economic analysis) and concluded that individuals act to maximize their expected utility; in other words, citizens will vote only if the expected benefits outweigh the expected costs.\pnt Under this approach, voting costs ``disenfranchise'' low-income citizens.\pnt Other sources testify that many reasons related to income or education also affect an individual's voting behavior. Milbrath supports the income factor: high income groups ``tend to be better educated, they are more likely to perceive that they have a stake in politics, and they are more likely to interact with persons active in politics.''\pnt The number of years of formal education an individual has had also tends to be associated with the probability that he will cast a ballot. Campbell et al. indicate that the more formal education a citizen has received, the more likely he is to understand political events. The more political events that are understood, the more likely the events will interest him.\pnt In a broader sense, it is argued that ``education can enhance understanding of the democratic process, inculcate values supportive of citizen participation, and increase the citizen's capacity to acquire and process information about the political system.''\pnt What about the data opposing the formidable array of sources supporting the primary hypothesis? Well, not many political scientists were willing to risk their reputation. The Lone Ranger was Hadley, who argued that income was not associated with voter turnout and education was only moderately associated with turnout, but even this relationship was disappearing more each year.\pnt He bases his conclusion on an extensive survey of 2006 people done by Market Opinion Research.\pnt With this data he demonstrates that there is only a difference of less than ten percent between voters and non-voters at all economic levels.\pnt He also shows that there is only a moderate association between education and voting with the poll done by Market Opinion Research.\pnt Hadley also notes the large amount of evidence that shows although education levels in America have risen, voter turnout has declined.\pnt He also mentions a University of Michigan study that indicates participation in politics has declined the most rapidly among those who have completed college.\pnt Although Hadley is the only scholar who will oppose the primary hypothesis directly, there are many other political scientists who oppose the primary hypothesis indirectly when they advance their own explanations about the determinants of voter turnout. The search for the factors that influence voter turnout continues because there is not one perfect predictor of voter behavior; otherwise the debate would have ended long ago. Instead, it is likely that there are several factors that jointly affect voter turnout.\pnt Thus, although the evidence seems to indicate socioeconomic status is the most important determinant of voter turnout, other factors must also influence voter behavior. Therefore, the first alternative hypothesis to be investigated is: \quote{Among U.S. citizens in 1980, those with a high sense of external political efficacy will tend to vote in that year's presidential election, while those with a low sense of external political efficacy will tend to not vote in that election.} For many years political scientists thought a voter's sense of political efficacy could be defined by a combination of responses to four statements. However, Converse (1972) and Balch (1974) argued the four questions measured two different concepts: a voter's sense of personal political effectiveness (internal political efficacy) and a voter's beliefs about government responsiveness (external political efficacy).\pnt Subsequent analyses by Abramson and Finifter (1981) and Craig (1979) also support this finding strongly.\pnt External political efficacy is measured by a two-item index with scores being based on an agree/disagree/don't know trichotomy of responses to the following statements: ``I don't think public officials care much what people like me think,'' and ``people like me don't have any say about what the government does.''\pnt Several scholars have conducted research on the first alternative hypothesis and have concluded that it is sound. Shaffer (1981) used the two-item index and concluded that the higher one's sense of external political efficacy was, the more likely he was to vote.\pnt The Aldrich and Abramson study (1982) also supports the association between external political efficacy and turnout, but to a lesser degree.\pnt Both of these studies conclude that external political efficacy is a highly significant determinant, but neither quantifies the importance of external political efficacy because they are concerned with measuring the decline in turnout in the last twenty years. Other studies using the ``traditional'' measurement of political efficacy done by Campbell et al. (1980), Brody (1978), and Clotfelter and Prysby (1980) agree political efficacy is associated with voter turnout.\pnt There are several theoretical reasons why people who think they are politically effective will be more likely to vote. Individuals who perceive themselves as being politically capable could feel psychologically inclined to vote, whereas those who feel overcome by politics may cease voting.\pnt Also, ``from a rational choice perspective, one would expect that beliefs that the government is responsive would increase the subjective utility in voting.''\pnt Furthermore, feelings of external political efficacy are related to support for democratic political norms that cherish participation.\pnt However, several scholars analyses do not support the first alternative hypothesis. Ashenfelter and Kelly (1975) conclude that the importance of political efficacy as a variable is exaggerated, but they include one internal political efficacy measure in their index.\pnt Reiter (1979) finds that political efficacy has no influence on voter turnout, but he doesn't report how he measured political efficacy.\pnt Hill and Cassel (1981) conclude that the reduction of efficacy has had little effect on the decline in turnout, yet they use the old four item index of political efficacy which has been forsaken even by the University of Michigan researchers themselves.\pnt Thus, although several studies conclude that political efficacy is not related to voter turnout, their usefulness is limited because they did not use the new index to measure external political efficacy. The literature detailing the findings about internal political efficacy is also nebulous because of the problems associated with defining the variable. However, some researchers have employed the new definition of internal efficacy and have found that internal political efficacy is also associated with turnout. Therefore, the second alternative hypothesis to be examined is: \quote{Among U.S. citizens in 1980, those with a high sense of internal political efficacy will tend to vote in that year's presidential election, while those with a low sense of internal political efficacy will tend to not vote in that election.} Internal political efficacy is defined as a voter's sense of personal political effectiveness. It usually is measured by a two-item index with scores being based on the agree/disagree/don't know trichotomy of responses to the following statements: ``Sometimes politics and government seem so complicated that a person like me can't really understand what's going on,'' and ``voting is the only way (to change policies you disagree with).''\pnt Two scholars have done research which supports the thrust of the hypothesis. Hadley constructs an `impotency index' by using the familiar trichotomy of responses to the two statements used for external political efficacy and the `politics seems so complicated' statement.\pnt With this format, Hadley finds that the non-voters feel ten percent to thirty-one percent more impotent depending on which statement they were responding to.\pnt Hadley concludes ``most voters feel politically efficacious. Most refrainers feel politically impotent.''\pnt A.~H.~Miller and W.~E.~Miller cite a Center for Political Studies report which defines political efficacy as ``the feeling that one can have an influence on governmental behavior.''\pnt This report uses two variables to measure efficacy, but doesn't specify which two. It finds that twenty-six percent more of the voters feel efficacious as compared to non-voters.\pnt Moreover, all the studies mentioned above which used the traditional four-item index could be said to support to a lesser extent the `internal efficacy' hypothesis as much as they support the `external efficacy' hypothesis. Of course, all the four-item index studies which negated the `external efficacy' hypothesis disprove the `internal efficacy' hypothesis also to an extent. However, no one yet has concluded internal efficacy is not related to turnout when using the standard two-item index. The third alternative hypothesis that will be investigated is: \quote{Among U.S. citizens in 1980, those with a high intensity of partisan attitude will tend to vote in that year's presidential election, while those with a low intensity of partisan attitude will tend to not vote in that election.} Asher defines party identification to be ``a psychological commitment or attachment to a political party that normally predisposes one to evaluate that party and its candidates in a favorable light.''\pnt The intensity of partisan attitude is examined by Campbell et al. by constructing six measures of partisan feeling.\pnt They then investigated the relation of voter turnout to the six partisan attitudes by fitting a statistical model and using the methods of statistical discrimination and multiple regression.\pnt Many studies agree that intensity of party identification is strongly related to voter participation. Flannigan (1972) believes that partisan loyalty is the most important factor influencing voter behavior.\pnt Pomper states ``the influence of partisanship on electoral behavior is widely accepted.''\pnt Campbell et al. first demonstrated a strong theoretical link between the two by arguing individuals vote because they want their preferences heard as opposed to the non-voters who do not vote because they do not care and also that strong feelings of partisan identification add to psychological involvement in politics.\pnt From a Downsian perspective, it is to be expected that intense feelings of party identification would reduce information costs and thus reduce voting costs.\pnt Moreover, partisans would perceive a greater benefit from the election of their candidates than someone who had no intense feelings on the subject.\pnt Many studies show that as the intensity of partisan feelings decrease, so does voter turnout.\pnt This finding indirectly supports the association. Few disagree that the strength of partisan loyalties are related to voter turnout. Ashenfelter and Kelly (1981) are almost alone when they write ``strength of `partisanship' $\ldots$ had little or nothing to do with the probability of voting.''\pnt Only Cassel and Hill come close to supporting Ashenfelter and Kelly when they conclude that weakening party identification is only slightly related to decreasing voter turnout.\pnt In summary, voting behavior is studied for many reasons. Also, the proportion of the electorate that turns out to vote in a presidential election is a function of several factors acting simultaneously. Socioeconomic status is virtually unchallenged as a determinant of voter behavior. External political efficacy and intensity of partisan identification are also generally believed by scholars to be factors that determine voter participation. There has been very little analysis of internal political efficacy, but the few sources who discuss it seem to think it is also a determinant of electoral activity. This budding scholar must admit it will be exciting to `explore strange, new determinants and go where no political scientist (well, few anyway) has gone before.' \vfill\eject \enf=-1000 \baselineskip=12pt\parskip=12pt \cb{Endnotes} \bigskip \en{Howard L. Reiter, ``Why is Turnout Down?'' {\it Public Opinion Quarterly}, 43 (1979), p. 297.} \en{Sidney Verba and Norman H. Nie, {\it Participation in America: Political Democracy and Social Equality} (New York: Harper and Row, 1972), p. 4.} \en{Verba and Nie, p. 4.} \en{Thomas E. Cavanagh, ``Changes in American Voter Turnout, 1964-1976,'' {\it Political Science Quarterly}, 96 (1981), p. 53.} \en{Richard G. Niemi and Herbert Weisberg, {\it Controversies in American Voting Behavior} (San Francisco: W.~H.~Freeman and Company, 1976), p. 2.} \en{Verba and Nie, p. 1.} \en{Niemi and Weisberg, p. 2.} \en{Gabriel A. Almond and Sidney Verba, {\it The Civic Culture: Political Attitude, and Democracy in Five Nations} (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1963), Chapter 9 as quoted in Verba and Nie, p. 5.} \en{Anthony Downs, ``The Causes and Effects of Rational Abstention,'' in {\it Controversies in American Voting Behavior}, ed. Richard G. Niemi and Herbert Weisberg (San Francisco: W.~H.~Freeman and Company, 1976), p. 33.} \en{William H. Flannigan, {\it Political Behavior and the American Electorate} (Boston: Allyn and Bacon, 1968), pp. 1-2.} \en{Flannigan, pp. 1-2.} \en{Eugene Burdick and Arthur J. Brodbeck, {\it American Voting Behavior} (New York: The Free Press, 1959), p. 139.} \en{Angus Campbell et al., {\it The American Voter} (New York: John Wiley \& Sons, 1960), p. 90.} \en{Campbell et al., p. 4.} \en{Campbell et al., p. 4.} \en{Herbert Asher, {\it Presidential Elections and American Politics}, rev. ed., (Homewood, Illinois: Dorsey Press, 1980), p. 48.} \en{Asher, p. 34.} \en{Asher, pp. 48-49.} \en{Reiter, p. 298.} \en{Cavanagh, p. 53.} \en{John F. Zipp et al., ``Political Parties and Political Participation: A Reexamination of the Standard Socioeconomic Model,'' {\it Social Forces}, 60 (1982), p. 11.} \en{Zipp et al., p. 1141; Carol A. Cassel and David B. Hill, ``Explanations of Turnout Decline: A Multivariate Test,'' {\it American Politics Quarterly}, 9 (1981), p. 182.} \en{Zipp et al., p. 1141.} \en{Cassel and Hill, p. 186; M. Margaret Conway, ``Political Participation in Midterm Congressional Elections,'' {\it American Politics Quarterly}, 9 (1981), 240; Maddox as quoted in Stephen D. Shaffer, ``A Multivariate Explanation of Decreasing Turnout in Presidential Elections, 1960-1976,'' {\it American Journal of Political Science}, 25 (1981), p. 69.} \en{Reiter, p. 304-310; Cavanagh, p. 53,58; R.~A.~Brody, ``The Puzzle of Political Participation in America,'' pp. 287-324 in {\it The New American Political System} ed. A.~King (Washington, D.C.: AEI, 1978) in Conway, p. 223, 228.} \en{Robert Lane, {\it Political Life} (Glencoe, Illinois 1959), pp. 223-234.} \en{Lane, pp. 233-234.} \en{Anthony Downs, {\it An Economic Theory of Democracy} (New York: Harper and Row, 1957), Chapter 9.} \en{Downs, Chapter 9.} \en{Lester W. Milbrath, {\it Political Participation} (Chicago: Rand-McNally, 1965), pp. 116-121.} \en{Campbell, pp. 476-477.} \en{Conway, p. 223.} \en{Arthur T. Hadley, {\it The Empty Polling Booth} (Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice-Hall, Inc., 1978), p. 21-22.} \en{Hadley, pp. 9-10.} \en{Hadley, p. 22.} \en{Hadley, p. 22.} \en{Hadley, p. 22.} \en{Hadley, p. 22.} \en{Neimi and Weisberg, p. 29; Campbell et al., p. 13, 17.} \en{Phillip E. Converse, ``Change in the American Electorate'' in {\it The Human Meaning of Social Change} ed. Angus Campbell and Phillip E. Converse (New York: Russel Sage, 1972) pp. 263-339 in Paul R. Abramson and John H. Aldrich, ``The Decline of Electoral Participation in America,'' {\it American Political Science Review}, 76 (1982), pp. 502-520; George I. Balch, ``Multiple Indicators in Survey Research: The Concept `Sense of Political Efficacy','' {\it Political Methodology}, 1 (1974), pp. 1-43 in Abramson and Aldrich, p. 504.} \en{Paul R. Abramson and Ada Finifter, ``On the Meaning of Political Trust: New Evidence from Items Introduced in 1978,'' {\it American Journal of Political Science} 25 (1981), pp. 297-307 in Abramson and Aldrich, p. 504; Stephen C. Craig, ``Efficacy, Trust, and Political Behavior: An Attempt to Resolve a Lingering Conceptual Dilemma,'' {\it American Politics Quarterly} 7 (1979), pp. 225-239 in Abramson and Aldrich, p. 504.} \en{Abramson and Aldrich, p. 510.} \en{Shaffer, pp. 92-93.} \en{Abramson and Aldrich, pp. 511, 519-520.} \en{Campbell et al., p. 105; Brody, pp. 287-324 in Cassel and Hill, p. 182; J. Clotfelter and C.~L.~Prysby, {\it Political Choices: A Study of Elections and Voters} (New York: Holt, Rinehart \& Winston, 1980) in Cassel and Hill, p. 182.} \en{Abramson and Aldrich, p. 511.} \en{Abramson and Aldrich, p. 511.} \en{Abramson and Aldrich, p. 511.} \en{Orley Ashenfelter and Stanley Kelly, ``Determinants of Participation in Presidential Elections,'' {\it Journal of Law and Economics}, 18 (1975), pp. 695-733 in Abramson and Aldrich, p. 511.} \en{Reiter, pp. 296-310.} \en{Hill and Cassel, p. 194.} \en{Hadley, p. 167; Abramson, p. 504.} \en{Hadley, p. 167.} \en{Hadley, p. 35.} \en{Hadley, p. 34.} \en{Arthur H. Miller and Warren E. Miller, ``Issues, Candidates, and Partisan Divisions in the 1972 American Presidential Election,'' {\it British Journal of Political Science}, 5 (1975), pp. 393-434 in Niemi and Weisberg, p. 28.} \en{Niemi and Weisberg, p. 28.} \en{Asher, p. 34.} \en{Campbell et al., p. 67.} \en{Campbell et al., p. 72.} \en{Flannigan, p. 37.} \en{Gerald M. Pomper, {\it Voters' Choice} (New York: Dodd, Mead \& Company, 1975), p. 18.} \en{Campbell et al., p. 97.} \en{Abramson and Aldrich, p. 505.} \en{Abramson and Aldrich, p. 505.} \en{Shaffer, p. 69.} \en{Ashenfelter and Kelly, p. 717.} \en{Cassel and Hill, p. 67.} \vfill\eject \cb{Bibliography} \leftskip=\parindent \parindent=-\parindent Abramson, Paul R. and John H. Aldrich. ``The Decline of Electoral Participation in America.'' {\it American Political Science Review}, 76 (1982), pp. 502-520. Asher, Herbert. {\it Presidential Elections and American Politics}, rev. ed. Homewood, Illinois: Dorsey Press, 1980. Campbell, Agnus et al. {\it The American Voter}. New York: John Wiley \& Sons, 1960. Cassel, Carol A. and David B. Hill. ``Explanations of Turnout Decline: A Multivariate Test.'' {\it American Politics Quarterly}, 9 (1981), pp. 181-195. Cavanagh, Thomas E. ``Changes in American Voter Turnout, 1964-1976.'' {\it Political Science Quarterly}, 96 (1981), pp. 53-65. Conway, M. Margaret. ``Political Participation in Midterm Congressional Elections.'' {\it American Politics Quarterly}, 9 (1981), pp. 221-244. Downs, Anthony. ``The Causes and Effects of Rational Abstention'' In {\it Controversies in American Voting Behavior}. Ed. Richard G. Niemi and Herbert Weisberg. San Francisco: W.~H.~Freeman and Company, 1976, pp. 32-33. Flannigan, William H. {\it Political Behavior and the American Electorate}. Boston: Allyn and Bacon, 1968. Hadley, Arthur T. {\it The Empty Polling Booth}. Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice-Hall, Inc., 1978. Niemi, Richard G. and Herbert Weisberg. {\it Controversies in American Voting Behavior}. San Francisco: W.~H.~Freeman and Company, 1976, pp. 1-31. Pomper, Gerald M. {\it Voter's Choice}. New York: Dodd, Mead \& Company, 1975. Reiter, Howard L. ``Why is Turnout Down?'' {\it Public Opinion Quarterly}, 43 (1979), pp. 297-311. Verba, Sidney and Norman H. Nie. {\it Participation in America: Political Democracy and Social Equality}. New York: Harper and Row, 1972. Zipp, John F. et al. ``Political Parties and Political Participation: A Reexamination of the Standard Socioeconomic Model.'' {\it Social Forces}, 60 (1982), pp. 1140-1152. \message{Done!: \number\ftnm \number\fotnum} \bye