`## Loading required package: idem`

`## Loading required package: Rcpp`

In randomized studies involving severely ill patients, functional outcomes are often unobserved due to missed clinic visits, premature withdrawal or death. It is well known that if these unobserved functional outcomes are not handled properly, biased treatment comparisons can be produced.

*R* package **idem** implement a procedure for comparing treatments that is based on the composite endpoint of both the functional outcome and survival. The procedure considers missing data imputation with a sensitivity analysis strategy to handle the unobserved functional outcomes not due to death.

In dataset accepted by **idem**, each row should represent a subject with treatment assignment, baseline coveraites, baseline outcome, post-randomization outcomes and survival time.

The **idem** package provides dataset *abc* from *ABC* trial as an example data set.

```
## AGE TRT SURV Y1 Y2
## 1 59.63 1 999 NA NA
## 2 66.89 0 999 49 52
## 3 59.70 1 1 NA NA
## 4 81.41 0 72 NA NA
## 5 66.52 1 999 51 45
## 6 40.27 0 65 NA NA
```

There are four major steps in conducting imputation and inference using **idem**. First, a class *IDEMDATA* object should be generated by the function *imData*. Second, the imputation models will be fit to the data observed from the completers by the function *imFitModel*. Third, imputation can be conducted by the function *imImpAll*. Lastly, treatment effect estimation and hypothesis testing can be performed by function *imInfer*.

In this step, the original dataset with specification parameters will be combined and checked. These parameters include variable names in the dataset, endpoint specification, duration of the study, etc.. If there is mis-specification, error messages will be generated. Otherwise, a class *IDEMDATA* object will be generated with certain data visulation functions implemented as its S3 methods.

```
rst.data <- imData(abc, trt="TRT", outcome=c("Y1","Y2"), y0=NULL,
endfml="Y3", bounds=c(10,20), duration=365,
err.terminate = FALSE);
print(rst.data);
```

```
## Model specification is invalid. Please check the following:
## No survival time specified
## Endpoint formula error: Error in eval(substitute(expr), data, enclos = parent.frame()) : object 'Y3' not found
## Upper bound is smaller than some observed outcomes
```

```
rst.data <- imData(abc, trt="TRT", surv="SURV", outcome=c("Y1","Y2"),
y0=NULL, endfml="Y2",
trt.label = c("UC+SBT", "SAT+SBT"),
cov=c("AGE"), duration=365, bounds=c(0,100));
```

The class *IDEMDATA* provides S3 plot and summary methods with multiple options for the visualization of the data.

```
## Y1 Y2 UC.SBT SAT.SBT
## Deaths on study 58 (62%) 38 (41%)
## S=1 Observed Observed 18 (19%) 32 (34%)
## S=2 Observed Missing 8 (9%) 8 (9%)
## S=3 Missing Observed 1 (1%) 0 (0%)
## S=4 Missing Missing 9 (10%) 15 (16%)
## Total 94 93
```

To fit the imputation model to data observed from the completers, i.e.Â the subjects who were alive at the end of the study without missing data, the class *IDEMDATA* object needs to be passed to the function *imFitModel* as parameters. The result has class name **IDEMFIT**, which will be passed to imputation functions.

The goodness of fit diagnostics plots can be generated by the S3 plot method implemented for class *IDEMFIT*:

The MCMC sampling is primarily done by **rstan**. It is suggested that the convergence of the MCMC chains should be checked. This can be done by the **imImpSingle** function which imputes missing data for an individual subject under the benchmark assumption.

```
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 9e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.09 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
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## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.024021 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.026429 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.05045 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.02 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
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## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.026176 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 2: 0.023679 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.049855 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Iteration: 1 / 2000 [ 0%] (Warmup)
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## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.026421 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.021087 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.047508 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Iteration: 1 / 2000 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 200 / 2000 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 400 / 2000 [ 20%] (Warmup)
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## Chain 4: Iteration: 1001 / 2000 [ 50%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 1200 / 2000 [ 60%] (Sampling)
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## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.024821 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.023315 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.048136 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

The following code shows how to use **imImpAll** to get the imputed complete datasets under benchmark assmption **delta=0** and for sensitivity analysis. We use **300** iterations to reduce the computation time.

```
rst.imp <- imImpAll(rst.fit, deltas=c(-0.25,0,0.25),
normal=TRUE, chains = 4, iter = 300, warmup = 100);
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

The result from *imIMPALL* is class *IDEMFIT*. Density plots the imputed outcomes and the imputed functional endpoint can be generated by the S3 plot method associated with class *IDEMFIT*.

Treatment-specific cumulative distribution functions of the composite endpoint, where the values of the composite endpoint are labeled according to the survival time and functional endpoint among survivors, can be plotted by the S3 plot method of class *IDEMFIT*.

The function *imInfer* implements bootstrap analysis for hypothesis testing, point estimation and confidence intervals of the treatment effects.

For illustration, we run **2** bootstrap samples by the following code:

```
## ---- Bootstrap 1
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.004602 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.00834 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.012942 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.003834 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 2: 0.00738 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.011214 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.004071 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.008173 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.012244 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.02 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.004119 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.008537 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.012656 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 2 : 1 out of 43
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.004887 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.00866 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.013547 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.02 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
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## Chain 2: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.004627 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 2: 0.007807 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.012434 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
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## Chain 3: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
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## Chain 3: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.003854 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.007788 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.011642 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.004013 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.007649 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.011662 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 3 : 2 out of 43
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.002554 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.004928 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.007482 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.02 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.002722 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 2: 0.004963 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.007685 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
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## Chain 3: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
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## Chain 3: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
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## Chain 3: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.002533 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.00486 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.007393 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.02 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
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## Chain 4: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.002939 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.005073 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.008012 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 13 : 3 out of 43
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 4e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.04 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
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## Chain 1: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
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## Chain 1: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.003951 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.007863 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.011814 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 2:
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## Chain 2: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.004169 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 2: 0.007956 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.012125 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 3:
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## Chain 3: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
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## Chain 3: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.00376 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.007825 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.011585 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 4:
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## Chain 4: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.003815 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.007202 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.011017 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 22 : 4 out of 43
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 1:
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## Chain 1: 0.007502 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.011366 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 2:
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## Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.003797 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 2: 0.00771 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.011507 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.003819 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.007767 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.011586 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 4:
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## Chain 4: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.003875 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.008055 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.01193 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 24 : 5 out of 43
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 1:
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## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.002547 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.005119 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.007666 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.02 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 2:
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## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.002675 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 2: 0.005091 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.007766 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.02 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 3:
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## Chain 3: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.00259 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.005007 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.007597 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
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## Chain 4: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.002826 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.004929 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.007755 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 25 : 6 out of 43
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 1:
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## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.004681 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.008947 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.013628 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 2:
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## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.004451 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 2: 0.007781 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.012232 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.004635 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.00733 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.011965 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 4:
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## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.003651 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.007856 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.011507 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 26 : 7 out of 43
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 4e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.04 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.002858 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.004993 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.007851 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.02 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.002775 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 2: 0.005058 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.007833 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.02 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.002529 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.00503 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.007559 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 4:
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## Chain 4: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.002718 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.005127 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.007845 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 30 : 8 out of 43
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 4e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.04 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.00246 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.005 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.00746 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 2:
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## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.002637 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 2: 0.005236 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.007873 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.01 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.002575 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.005166 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.007741 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.02 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 4:
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## Chain 4: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.002685 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.00494 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.007625 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 32 : 9 out of 43
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.005093 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.008062 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.013155 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 2:
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## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.003824 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 2: 0.008682 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.012506 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.00388 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.008583 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.012463 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.02 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 4:
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## Chain 4: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.00351 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.007518 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.011028 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 36 : 10 out of 43
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 4e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.04 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.003615 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.007493 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.011108 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.004123 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 2: 0.008482 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.012605 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.003845 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.007774 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.011619 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.02 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 4:
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## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.004076 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.008042 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.012118 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 53 : 11 out of 43
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.004548 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.009419 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.013967 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 2: 0.012039 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.02 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 3: 0.011959 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.02 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 4:
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## Chain 4: 0.007889 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.011627 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 55 : 12 out of 43
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 1: 0.007709 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 2: 0.00786 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 3: 0.007791 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.02 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.002854 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.005072 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.007926 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 70 : 13 out of 43
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 1: 0.007299 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.011031 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 2: 0.011338 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.02 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.004156 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.008212 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.012368 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.01 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 4:
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## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.004328 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.007525 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.011853 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 73 : 14 out of 43
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 4e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.04 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 1:
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## Chain 1: 0.008922 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.012658 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.02 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.003719 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 2: 0.00784 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.011559 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
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## Chain 3: 0.00813 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.012121 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.003657 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.007323 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.01098 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 76 : 15 out of 43
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 4e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.04 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 1: 0.00921 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.013813 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.02 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 2: 0.012985 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.02 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 4:
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## Chain 4: 0.007091 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.010632 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 77 : 16 out of 43
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 1: 0.007962 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.02 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 2: 0.007993 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.002557 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.005124 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.007681 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 4:
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## Chain 4: 0.00511 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.007962 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 85 : 17 out of 43
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 4e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.04 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 1: 0.007717 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 2: 0.005056 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.007986 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 3: 0.005164 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.007838 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.002629 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.004937 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.007566 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 86 : 18 out of 43
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 1:
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## Chain 1: 0.005095 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.007744 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
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## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 2: 0.00879 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.02 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
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## Chain 3: 0.010081 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
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## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.003599 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.005466 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.009065 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 89 : 19 out of 43
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 1:
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## Chain 1: 0.006416 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.009964 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 4e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.04 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 2: 0.010421 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 4e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.04 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.003276 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.005883 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.009159 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.6e-05 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.26 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 4:
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## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.002721 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.005782 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.008503 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 95 : 20 out of 43
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 1:
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## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.005322 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.008449 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.013771 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 4e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.04 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 2:
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## Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.004549 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 2: 0.008832 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.013381 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.004534 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.009331 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.013865 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 4:
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## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.004448 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.00779 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.012238 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 99 : 21 out of 43
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 4e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.04 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.003663 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.007919 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.011582 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 4e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.04 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 2:
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## Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.0042 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 2: 0.007379 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.011579 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.02 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
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## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.003905 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.00828 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.012185 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.004455 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.007466 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.011921 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 102 : 22 out of 43
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.005149 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.009137 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.014286 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.005062 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 2: 0.00875 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.013812 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.02 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
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## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.004295 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.008298 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.012593 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 4:
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## Chain 4: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.004045 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.007593 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.011638 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 105 : 23 out of 43
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 4e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.04 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 1: 0.007621 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.011587 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 2:
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## Chain 2: 0.012434 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.003952 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.007671 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.011623 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.02 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 4:
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## Chain 4: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.004034 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.007206 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.01124 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 107 : 24 out of 43
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 1: 0.009613 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.014648 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 4e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.04 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 2:
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## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.005109 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 2: 0.009567 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.014676 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 4e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.04 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 3: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.004159 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.007144 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.011303 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 4:
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## Chain 4: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.004015 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.007218 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.011233 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 108 : 25 out of 43
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.003858 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.007601 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.011459 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 2:
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## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.003837 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 2: 0.007588 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.011425 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.003752 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.007286 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.011038 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 4:
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## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.003795 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.007119 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.010914 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 113 : 26 out of 43
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 1:
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## Chain 1: 0.008013 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.011835 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.02 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
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## Chain 2: 0.011636 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 3: 0.011728 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 4:
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## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.004048 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.012901 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.016949 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 115 : 27 out of 43
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 6e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.06 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 1: 0.005943 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.009391 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 2:
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## Chain 2: 0.008202 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 3:
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## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.002664 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.005249 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.007913 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 4:
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## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.002985 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.005447 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.008432 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 118 : 28 out of 43
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 4e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.04 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 1: 0.007234 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.011217 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 2:
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## Chain 2: 0.007867 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.011803 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.02 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.003624 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.007065 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.010689 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 4:
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## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.003802 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.007643 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.011445 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: The largest R-hat is 1.08, indicating chains have not mixed.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#r-hat
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 122 : 29 out of 43
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 6e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.06 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.003128 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.006218 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.009346 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.003256 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 2: 0.005493 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.008749 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.02 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.002723 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.005226 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.007949 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.002769 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.005299 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.008068 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 133 : 30 out of 43
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 4e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.04 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 2: 0.011332 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 3: 0.011311 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 4:
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## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.004158 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.007285 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.011443 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 134 : 31 out of 43
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 1: 0.00851 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.013347 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 4e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.04 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 2:
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## Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.005028 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 2: 0.008684 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.013712 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.02 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.003679 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.007681 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.01136 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.02 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 4:
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## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.003786 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.007819 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.011605 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 139 : 32 out of 43
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 1:
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## Chain 1: 0.00959 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.014207 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.004254 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 2: 0.008717 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.012971 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 4e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.04 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.004571 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.009475 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.014046 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 4:
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## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.004318 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.00875 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.013068 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 144 : 33 out of 43
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 6e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.06 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 1:
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## Chain 1: 0.010997 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.016411 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.00606 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 2: 0.010444 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.016504 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.005088 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.008844 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.013932 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.005532 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.010399 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.015931 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 145 : 34 out of 43
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 6e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.06 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.00545 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.00933 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.01478 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 4e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.04 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 2:
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## Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.004599 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 2: 0.009573 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.014172 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 3:
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## Chain 3: 0.008665 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.013466 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 4:
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## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.00528 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.009107 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.014387 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 148 : 35 out of 43
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 6e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.06 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.006084 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.010583 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.016667 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 2:
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## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.005032 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 2: 0.00929 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.014322 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.004996 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.009586 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.014582 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 4e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.04 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 4:
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## Chain 4: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.005044 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.00921 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.014254 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 156 : 36 out of 43
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 4e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.04 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.003831 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.007046 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.010877 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 4e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.04 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 2:
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## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.0038 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 2: 0.007101 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.010901 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 4e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.04 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.00371 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.007256 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.010966 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 4e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.04 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 4:
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## Chain 4: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.003981 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.007278 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.011259 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 163 : 37 out of 43
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 6e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.06 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.004922 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.01053 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.015452 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 4e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.04 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.004957 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 2: 0.00902 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.013977 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
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## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.004672 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.007979 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.012651 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
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## Chain 4: 0.007465 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.011421 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 168 : 38 out of 43
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 4e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.04 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 4: 0.013373 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 172 : 39 out of 43
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 1: 0.012671 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.02 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
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## Chain 3: 0.007791 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.01208 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 4: 0.008827 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.012619 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 175 : 40 out of 43
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 1: 0.015261 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
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## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 2: 0.015365 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
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## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
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## Chain 3: 0.015135 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 4e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.04 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
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## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 4: 0.01431 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 176 : 41 out of 43
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 4e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.04 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 1: 0.014898 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 4e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.04 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
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## Chain 2: 0.014287 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
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## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
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## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
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## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 177 : 42 out of 43
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
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## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
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## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
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## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
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## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
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## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
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## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
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## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 183 : 43 out of 43
## ---- Bootstrap 2
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 6e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.06 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
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## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
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## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
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## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
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## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
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## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
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## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
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## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 1 : 1 out of 47
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
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## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
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## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
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## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
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## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
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## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
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## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
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## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
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## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
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## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
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## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 4 : 2 out of 47
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 6e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.06 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
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## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
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## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
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## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
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## Chain 2:
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## Chain 2: 0.007361 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.011122 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 4e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.04 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 3:
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## Chain 3: 0.006793 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.010272 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 4e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.04 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 4:
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## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.003609 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.006505 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.010114 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 6 : 3 out of 47
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 6e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.06 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 1: 0.010983 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.018134 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.02 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 2:
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## Chain 2: 0.009318 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.014267 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.004898 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.009243 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.014141 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 4:
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## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.004668 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.010039 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.014707 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 8 : 4 out of 47
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.003885 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.006919 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.010804 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 4e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.04 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 2: 0.007173 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.010905 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 4e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.04 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.003498 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.006863 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.010361 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 4e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.04 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 4:
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## Chain 4: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.003429 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.006226 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.009655 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 15 : 5 out of 47
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 4e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.04 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.00479 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.008949 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.013739 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.004559 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 2: 0.009122 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.013681 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.02 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.005061 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.008425 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.013486 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.02 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 4:
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## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.004865 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.009659 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.014524 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 32 : 6 out of 47
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.002946 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.00588 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.008826 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.002941 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 2: 0.005441 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.008382 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.02 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 3:
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## Chain 3: 0.006975 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.01046 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.003776 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.007082 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.010858 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 35 : 7 out of 47
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 1: 0.011479 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.01829 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 4e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.04 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.00577 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 2: 0.011409 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.017179 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.004942 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.010078 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.01502 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 4:
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## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.004938 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.010574 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.015512 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 48 : 8 out of 47
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 1:
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## Chain 1: 0.007422 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.011166 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 4e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.04 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.003469 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 2: 0.006253 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.009722 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.003005 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.012767 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.015772 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 4:
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## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.0038 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.006915 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.010715 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 54 : 9 out of 47
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.003715 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.00674 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.010455 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.00409 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 2: 0.007008 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.011098 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 4e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.04 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
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## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.003701 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.007297 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.010998 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 4e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.04 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
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## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.00392 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.007211 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.011131 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 56 : 10 out of 47
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 1: 0.006856 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.010422 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 2: 0.010312 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 4e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.04 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 3: 0.006859 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.010846 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.003546 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.006331 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.009877 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 59 : 11 out of 47
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 6e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.06 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 1: 0.012028 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.019424 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 4e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.04 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 2:
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## Chain 2: 0.010951 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.017222 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 4e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.04 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.005544 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.009474 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.015018 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 4:
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## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.00516 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.009546 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.014706 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 63 : 12 out of 47
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 1:
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## Chain 1: 0.010827 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.016565 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 2: 0.0169 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
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## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 3: 0.012396 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.01777 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 4:
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## Chain 4:
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## Chain 4: 0.010385 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.016087 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 77 : 13 out of 47
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 1: 0.006646 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.010353 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 4e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.04 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
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## Chain 2:
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## Chain 2: 0.006154 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.009632 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
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## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
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## Chain 3: 0.005348 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.008071 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.02 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 4:
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## Chain 4: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.002851 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.005607 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.008458 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 78 : 14 out of 47
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 4e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.04 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 1:
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## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.005052 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.009071 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.014123 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 2:
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## Chain 2: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.004913 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 2: 0.009177 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.01409 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 3:
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## Chain 3: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.005789 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.01135 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.017139 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 4:
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## Chain 4: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.005675 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.009774 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.015449 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 83 : 15 out of 47
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
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## Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.00281 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.005823 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.008633 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.02 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
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## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.002911 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 2: 0.005519 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2:
```